The H.E.A.T. Formula
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Our Next Webinar:
Topic: How to Determine the Best Potential Investment Themes.
When: Oct 24,2024 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Register in advance for this webinar:
https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_nicbiSSlTwqTDXqOmfd1cA
Why Things Like Factors, Asset Classes, Styles, and Market Cap Diversification are Stupid.
Why most thematic ETFs suck.
How to use first-order, second-order, and third-order thinking to pick stocks and ETFs with the best potential upside.
One below-the-radar theme that could end up being extremely relevant regardless of who wins the election.
There will be a recording sent out to those who register
For Investment Pros Only
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Themes
AI Power
Another day, another AI nuclear power deal.....
Amazon signs agreements for innovative nuclear energy projects to address growing energy demands
Nuclear power is one part of that mix—it can be brought online at scale, and has a decades-long record of providing a reliable source of safe carbon-free energy for communities around the world.
Today, we’re announcing that we’ve signed three new agreements to support the development of nuclear energy projects—including enabling the construction of several new Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). SMRs are an advanced kind of nuclear reactor with a smaller physical footprint, allowing them to be built closer to the grid. They also have faster build times than traditional reactors, allowing them to come online sooner.
From Jefferies.....
Amazon latest new nuclear announcement involves Dominion for 2030+. The IRP is positive for Dominion highlighting incremental capex but it is long-dated. If AMZN takes 100% of the SMR risk via a build-own-transfer deal, that would be positive for D but any EPS benefit is a decade away.
Probably wouldn't chase D here......
Yesterday brings up the question about whether or not take profits in long term positions when they have ridiculous moves. There is no right answer, but I use options because of the fixed risk component. If my unit size is $2,000 per position, then that is my risk. If one of my $2,000 positions turns into a $20,000 position I am not comfortable with that type of downside risk. At a minimum you can make these positions free by just selling your cost basis, you could bring it back down to your unit size, cut it in half etc. I cut all my nuclear plays down yesterday, mostly in half.
AI
Chips turning around this morning....
Stock Market Today: TSMC Earnings Boost Chip Stocks-WSJ
Self Defense
Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats-Real Clear Investigations
When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.
But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
This continues to be an under the radar theme, especially with what's going on in AI. Regardless of who gets elected I believe we see more and more people taking self defense into their own hands.