The H.E.A.T. Formula
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Topic: How to Determine the Best Potential Investment Themes.
When: Oct 24,2024 11:00 AM Pacific Time
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Why Things Like Factors, Asset Classes, Styles, and Market Cap Diversification are Stupid.
Why most thematic ETFs suck.
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Themes
AI Power
U.S. approves mega geothermal energy project in Utah-Washington Post
In addition, the BLM proposed Thursday to speed up the permitting process for proposed geothermal projects on public lands across the country. Earlier this month, the agency also hosted the biggest lease sale for geothermal developers in more than 15 years.
While not as widely understood as wind turbines or solar panels, geothermal energy can play a crucial role in meeting the nation’s climate goals, experts say. Geothermal plants work by harnessing the heat trapped deep beneath the Earth’s surface to generate electricity. In the process, they produce far fewer planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions than coal or natural gas plants.
Jefferies reiterated their Buy rating on GEV....
In light of recent valuation-driven ratings changes by competitors, we reiterate our BUY rating; GEV remains a top pick for us with the 12/10 investor update an imminent revisions catalyst for a multi-year story we believe is just starting. With a pre-announcement shifting focus away from headline items, we re-underwrite our drivers core to our conviction and conclude that any overreaction to election worries would prove short-sighted.
AI
Love to see headlines like this. Means a dip buying opportunity maybe here soon....
AI Honeymoon Is Over for Chip Equipment Industry-WSJ
Demand for artificial-intelligence chips is booming. Unfortunately for those who make semiconductor-manufacturing gear, that isn’t always enough.
That dichotomy has become extremely clear this week. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. 2330 4.83%increase; green up pointing triangle posted strong third-quarter results Thursday and said it expects revenue from “server AI processors” that include Nvidia’s NVDA 0.89%increase; green up pointing triangle red-hot chips to more than triple this year.
That was preceded by a rather bleak report from ASML. The Dutch equipment maker said net bookings that represent orders were 2.6 billion euros ($2.8 billion) for the third quarter—less than half of what Wall Street was expecting and a major miss for a company whose lithography gear is a must-have for the most advanced chip manufacturing. The company also said it expects 2025 revenue to come in at the low end of its previous forecast.
Buy the Dip? The Case for ASML Stock Now.-Barron's/MarketWatch
“China looks mostly de-risked,” wrote Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri. “While we are disappointed by the results, we don’t see any structural issues and believe that risk/reward is attractive given near-trough bookings, EUV monopoly, secular generative AI demand, and attractive valuation.”
TSMC CEO says AI is not in a bubble and its growth is for real-MarketWatch
China
Rallying this morning....
Chinese Growth Comes in Cooler as Investors Pin Hopes on Stimulus-WSJ
China Moves to Support Markets After Data Showing Economy Slowed-Bloomberg
The People’s Bank of China disclosed more details of its measures to boost capital markets minutes after authorities released figures showing China’s slowdown deepened in the third quarter.
Gold
Starting to get interested in Gold and the miners again. A chat group I am in was talking about the Chinese insurance industry being cleared to carry Gold as an asset on their balance sheet soon. I have not seen a news story on this however...
Gold may not reach a price ceiling anytime soon. Here’s why.-MarketWatch
“Foreign demand remains strong, and we are likely to hear more from the BRICS bloc regarding their de-dollarization plans,” Armbruster said, referring to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. “Western investors have been slow to embrace gold, and if that changes, it could turbocharge gold higher.”
Weight Loss Drugs
Weight-loss drugs may reduce opioid and alcohol abuse by up to 50%, study finds-MarketWatch