We are ringing the closing bell on the CBOE in Chicago 11/6, 3PM Chicago time. If anyone is in Chicago and wants to come let me know.

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Big week. AAPL, META, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL all report and PCE is Thursday and non farm payrolls are Friday. Then of course the election next week. One of the key things I will be watching is implied volatility on SPY 0DTE puts. I will be looking to sell some juiced IV and protect it with not so juiced IV (Calendar spread). Right now seeing elevated IV on 11/6, but not really on Friday. Will wait to see if I can do better.

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From Stifel.....

5 of the Mag 7 report      with the St (as does Mark) seemingly having most confident in upside      @ META (Wed AMC) with a somewhat lowered bar with more controversy      (though still crowded) across the rest of the group. AMZN (Thurs      AMC) expected to demonstrate reacceleration in AWS but while e-com      likely to remain pressured investors also want to see margins on e-com.      AAPL’s outlook (Thurs AMC) will be most focused with mixed (neg      last week) data points on iPhone15 sales trends, the production outlook      (iPhone15 and upcoming SE) plus commentary around setting expectations      for any lift from AI functionality. GOOGL (Tues AMC) beat by less      last qtr, but data point on ad trends have been positive in the qtr. Mark      sees upside, inching up numbers into the print. MSFT (Wed      AMC) sentiment has bounced around of late with question on AI positioning      countered by new AI tools combined with solid Enterprise spending data      points (NOW SAP). Brad sees typical 100bps upside from Azure,      13% O365 growth (half seat/half ASP), DD% Commercial bookings and DD% Op      Inc growth (w/ 100bps om compression).  

Bottom line for us, with all of these binary events over the next couple of weeks anything could happen. Anyone telling you what is likely to happen with any sort of certainty is fooling themselves. I personally have a watchlist of names I would like to add, but unless something really compelling happens my sense is I am better off sitting on my hands until this is all over.

Themes

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AI Power

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Jefferies came out with a buy on GEV, PT $336. Interesting that they look at the nuclear part as something that doesn't kick in until the 2030's....

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Clearly talking up SMR but not a major mover until early 2030s. Managementcommentary on the call suggests increasing momentum around small modularreactors (SMR) and clear related upside into the next decade, echoing theflurry of announcements in the wake of the Department of Energy October 15thNuclear Day. The company stressed 2029 as the year to watch with thecommissioning of the first 300MW BWRX-300 in Canada. Management has indicatedSMR could become a driver starting early next decade. While not a focus of the Analyst Day, we expect more details around framing the potential upside.

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This is a name I have talked about before. I think Jefferies had it as one of their top picks. The ADRs are SBGSY, don't trade a lot and don't have options though...

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This Little-Known Industrial Is Helping Electrify the Future. It’s Time to Buy the Stock.-Barron's

Schneider might not be a household name in the U.S., but there’s a good chance an investor has one of its “Square D” breaker boxes in their basement. Its business is much more than fuses and electrical outlets, though. Its 168,000-strong global workforce makes hardware and software enabling the electrification of just about everything.

EU Defense

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Head of UK armed forces gains new powers in push to improve readiness for war-FT‍

The new national armaments director will be responsible for ensuring the armed forces are properly equipped to defend Britain. A person with strong links to the defence sector is sought for the role, as they will help shape and deliver a new defence industry strategy to be launched within weeks.They will also be expected to oversee the resilience of defence supply chains and the readiness of the national arsenal.

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Politically Neutral

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Harley-Davidson cuts revenue forecast on inflation, DEI backlash-Fox News

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ugly chart, Go Woke Go Broke.....

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Inflation

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Economists Warn of New Inflation Hazards After Election-WSJ

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It's Fed policies that carry the greatest risk of stoking inflation, which is what the bond market has been telling us. Regardless of who wins, I think this could be a dominant theme going forward.

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