Click Here to subscribe to The H.E.A.T. Formula Newsletter

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

‍

Please register for: The Best Investment Themes Post Election 

on Nov 21, 2024 11:00 AM PST at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8455197581530760535

Matthew Tuttle will discuss:

Three below the radar investment themes that have nothing to do with AI.

How to design trades for asymmetric returns.

How to profit from the Fed’s stupidity.

Why bonds are a stupid investment and what to do instead.

If you would like CFP™ education credit (½ hour),  pleaseemail pneville@tuttlecap.com your CFP™ID number.

If you can't make the live webinar, register and we will send are cap.

For investment pros only.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

‍

Themes

‍

China

‍

From Jefferies this morning.....

‍

Press reports indicate that China is considering a fiscal package of up to 10trillion Yuan, with a 6 trillion Yuan for helping the indebted local authorities and 4 trillion Yuan for buying unused property and land. All eyes would be on the China legislature gathering (4-8th November) for the fiscal policy announcement.

While further fiscal support would be a positive, we would not call it the big bazooka. It also depends on how the fiscal support is administered and over what time frame. Helping the local authorities would help stem the negative sentiment, but it may not be enough to generate the positive momentum for the economy

In yesterday's note, and on The Watchlist, I talked about BABA and BIDU. Still like these charts, especially BIDU...

‍

If you are trading it you could use the 50 day moving average as a selling guide.

Exclusive: China considers over $1.4 trillion in extra debt over next few years-Reuters

China is considering approving next week the issuance of over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package which is expected to be further bolstered if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election, said two sources with knowledge of the matter.

AI

‍

Google has been the Mag 7 name we have been the most worried about, they crushed it last night, from Mike O'Rourke...

‍

Google stepped up tonight and beat expectations on all its key metrics. Google's Cloud revenue was stronger than forecast as it grew 35% year over year. Cloud's Operating income was $1.95 Billion versus the forecast of $1.11 Billion. Management still sees strong promise for AI in the future and believes Google is well positioned. The advertising business has benefited from the tailwind of the election. Regarding the company's capex, management stated "We will be investing in Q4 at approximately the same level of what we've invested in Q3, approximately $13 billion. And as we think into 2025, we do see an increase coming in 2025 and we will provide more color on that on the Q4 call, likely not the same percent step up that we saw between '23 and '24, but additional increase."

‍

AMD has been a name we have avoided, also from Mike O'Rourke.....

‍

Separately, we have called Advanced Micro Devices a serial disappointer, and that pattern has continued with the latest earnings report. Once again AMD's disappointment affirms Nvidia's dominant status.

‍

AI Power

Wall Street Giants to Make $50 Billion Bet on AI and Power Projects-WSJ

“Gas is going to be at the forefront of this,” Kimmelman said. “It can back up those intermittent renewables very nicely.”

Natural-gas plants are among the fastest solutions to AI’s power needs, but present the country’s largest tech companies with a conundrum. Tech companies have been leaning heavily on fossil fuels to power their data centers, which is making it hard for them to honor their pledges to reduce carbon emissions while pushing to accelerate AI development.

I like the natural gas names, only power area that is not overly extended at the moment.

Weight Loss Drugs

‍

Oops...

‍

Eli Lilly stock tumbles 10% after missing estimates and slashing profit guidance-CNBC.com

‍

Some support in the 830 area, after that watch the 200 day moving average....

‍

‍

‍