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Please register for: The Best Investment Themes Post Election 

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Three below the radar investment themes that have nothing to do with AI.

How to design trades for asymmetric returns.

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Why bonds are a stupid investment and what to do instead.

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Yesterday we had some tough earnings and turmoil in the UK Gilt market. The 10 yr Gilt tested the 4.5% level, the highest this year. This brought back memories of the breakdown a couple of years ago that impacted UK pensions.

The Great British bond battering continues after budget speech-MarketWatch

“This mechanical adjustment could have longer to run as investors finalize their assessment of the gilt market’s ability to absorb the additional supply, and the actual extent that tax raises will be able to cover for additional spending. However, market conditions point to a gradual shift to structurally higher yields rather than disorderly spikes,” he said.

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Last night was AMZN and AAPL. AMZN is rallying while AAPL is selling off. I continue to like AAPL long term, but looks like it will open below it's 50 day. Would be looking for support around $215.

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Themes

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Trump Trade

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The Trump names got crushed yesterday. DJT can be volatile for other reasons, so I think names like GEO are a better indicator.

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Personally been looking for a spot to get back into GEO as I missed the rally to start the month so I bought into the weakness. Seeing a couple of stories that may explain the move this morning...

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CPAC claims evidence of Wisconsin illegal ‘ballot harvesting’-Washington Examiner

On X, Schlapp wrote, “CPAC received reports of illicit ballot harvesting at the dropbox location outside Milwaukee City Hall. A witness reported an individual depositing a significant number of absentee ballots into the dropbox before fleeing the scene. Ballot Harvesting is illegal under Wisconsin Law.” Schlapp added that CPAC “is committed to protecting our elections and urges WEC and local law enforcement to investigate these allegations.”

Then this from the King Report...

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Trump’s lead over Harris in betting markets declined about 6 to 8 percentage points on reports that women have been 54% to 56% of early voting. This is a few percentage points higher than overall votes from women. Pundits warned that if men don’t come out on voting day, Trump could be in trouble. Trump’s overall lead rebounded yesterday afternoon when a few data geeks noted that the lower early vote totals for men were largely in big (blue)cities. This implies minority men are staying home.

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If you are looking to trade DJT, it had an undercut and rally at the 200 day, which could be used as a selling guide.

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CXW is similar to GEO but not as attractive IMHO. Also looks more like a short here. If it does climb above the 200 day moving average I may take a look just for some diversification.

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AI

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Tech Giants See AI Bets Starting to Pay Off-WSJ

Accelerating growth in cloud computing is the surest sign yet that spending by AI customers is beginning to justify the huge investments tech giants are making in infrastructure to power the technology.

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AI Power Generation

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AI Is Powering Natural-Gas Stocks. Watch These Companies.-Barron's

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Soaring demand for electricity is boosting all sorts of energy sources this year, from nuclear power to renewables. But in the near-term, much of the benefits appear to be going to natural-gas companies. Utilities and other companies that generate electricity are increasing their orders of natural-gas turbines, lifting the fortunes of companies that sell that equipment, and companies that produce or transport natural gas.

For natural-gas producers, the benefits are less direct. Natural-gas demand is also dependent on other things like weather and the strength of the liquefied-gas export market. But the use of gas for data center power could end up moving the needle.

Covered natural gas in Tuesday's Watchlist episode. GEV is extended and frustratingly becomes more so every day.

EQT and AR are not....

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I own both, and they both got crushed yesterday. I like the EQT chart better as it's above the 200 day moving average, which could be a selling guide if you want to trade the stock. AR looks like it could have more downside to the September low of $24.53. An undercut and rally at that level could be a buy trigger.

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As the Barron's article rightly points out, the natural gas stocks have other issues impacting them, which is why they are not extended like everything else in AI power.

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I would not go out and buy UNG (the widowmaker). This is a fundamentally flawed ETF because it buys Nat Gas futures and can suffer from contango. I have a number of models I run that short UNG.