I will be traveling Wed-Friday, back next week

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Yesterday was a tough day for the nuclear stocks. Was tempted to do some dip buying but ahead of the election today and the Fed tomorrow I think under trading is the smarter move. I did end up adding to my VKTX, which had quite a move, from up over 20% pre market to down 13%.

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Could end up being a good day for the self defense theme (GUNZ) as PLTR is up over 12% pre market on earnings last night. Meanwhile, SWBI looks like it wants to fill the gap.

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The Trump trade ought to be interesting. GEO was down a fourth day in a row, but closed way off the lows and had an undercut and rally at the 50 and 200 day. If he loses it probably makes it's way back down towards 12 but if he wins it probably tests 18. Not bad risk/reward, especially if you are playing the options.

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Meanwhile, DJT popped but failed to break back above the 200 day. I don't like the risk/reward here but wouldn't blame some one for wanting to trade it either way.

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Themes

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European Defense

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In a Trump win, 'buy-the-dip' opportunity seen in European defence-Reuters

A Donald Trump victory in the race for the White House is widely seen as bullish for European defence stocks, given his warnings to scale back U.S. military support in the region and force NATO members to spend 2% or more of their GDP on defence.

"There will be a big drawdown the day that some sort of (Ukraine)ceasefire is announced. But that day is going to be a very good one to buy these companies," said Vontobel portfolio manager Bob Hansen in New York, who is an investor in Rheinmetall. "The defence sector is on a continued structural growth path".

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AI Power Generation

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Jefferies came out with a note this morning bullish on data centers.....

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Ongoing power constraints are limiting new leases and driving rents higher, which keeps us bullish on DC developers. JEF top data center ideas across multiple sectors: DLR, CORZ, EQIX, NVDA, ALAB, AVGO, MRVL, SU:FP, VRT, ETN, MSFT, CIEN, ANET, and PPL.

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Snap Losing Streak-WSJ

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Is nuclear' s pain, natural gas' gain?

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Nice undercut and rally at the 200 day.

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Weight Loss Drugs

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Big Pharma’s Obesity Bonanza Faces New Tests-WSJ

All eyes will be on Novo Nordisk when the Danish company prepares to report quarterly results on Wednesday. The fear on Wall Street right now is that after Eli Lilly reported a shocking sales miss with Mounjaro and Zepbound, a poor showing for Novo’s Ozempic and Wegovy—which are both based on the active ingredient semaglutide—could signal a broader slowdown for the industry.

I've been buying the dips in these names, so far without much success. I continue to think the key to health is diet and exercise, but I think given the choice between a drug and lifestyle change, people will choose a drug. I also think the power of big pharma will get this subsidized and pushed by the government. The wild card is what happens if Trump wins? Does he empower RFK Jr. and the Means' to go after these drugs? If he does, do they have the ability to fight big pharma? Going to be interesting.