The H.E.A.T. Formula
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Please register for: The Best Investment Themes Post Election
on Nov 21, 2024 11:00 AM PST at:
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Three below the radar investment themes that have nothing to do with AI.
How to design trades for asymmetric returns.
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Why bonds are a stupid investment and what to do instead.
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For investment pros only.
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CPI was the big number yesterday, it came out in line and the markets are now pricing in another Fed rate cut in December, bringing total cuts this year to 1%.
From Jefferies this morning, I would tend to agree.....
Market is settling down after the initial post election market moves. Ourview from here is still bullish for risky assets and a range bound environmentfor rates. We will hold onto our bullish equity view till second to third weekof December before lightening up the portfolio for year-end. It is still a USover Europe story as Trump tariff concerns will dominate the market over thecoming weeks. We expect a range bound environment for rates (2.20% - 2.50% for10Y Bunds, 4.20-4.50% for 10Y USTs). We remain long peripherals.
There has been a lot of discussion around the expected path of central banks and whether Trump policies could impact them. We have not changed our central bank view yet. We still see another cut from the Fed and the ECB in December and then the pace to slow down to once a quarter. There is a possibility of an additional cut being priced in for the ECB, if growth picture deteriorates further from tariffs.
Themes
AI
ASML is up this morning on an earnings outlook. This is a core AI position for me, though I understand it will be choppy. If this move holds it will pull and undercut and rally at the October lows, and I may look to add.
Weight Loss Drugs
I woke up in the middle of the night to grab a snack, and as I turned around holding a bag of Doritos, RFK Jr was standing behind me in the dark, looking like this. pic.twitter.com/F8ZCMRRMDa
— Gator Gar (@yalligatorgar) November 14, 2024
Still haven't sold anything, but not looking to add until I get a better sense of what the MAHA movement can do....
Surging diabetes rate underscores vast opportunity in weight-loss drugs-MarketWatch
“We have seen an alarming rise in diabetes over the past three decades, which reflects the increase in obesity, compounded by the impacts of the marketing of unhealthy food, a lack of physical activity and economic hardship,” said WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
“To bring the global diabetes epidemic under control, countries must urgently take action. This starts with enacting policies that support healthy diets and physical activity, and, most importantly, health systems that provide prevention, early detection and treatment.”
Trump Trade
Bitcoin is now above $90K...
Getting rich in crypto is like getting pregnant, everyone congratulates you but no one knows how many times you got screwed
— Crypto Tea (@CryptoTea_) November 13, 2024
Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ pledge may be a win-win for drivers and oil producers alike-MarketWatch
Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ slogan is more of an ‘indication of his support for the industry, rather than a factor that would directly impact [oil’s] supply-demand dynamics.’
I do like OXY here....
Politically Neutral
Trump Threatens ESG Investing That Thrived in His First Term-Bloomberg
Now, as Trump returns to power, the movement for environmental, social and governance investing, or ESG, is in a much weaker position after years of Republican backlash and a stretch of rough performance. “ESG is a dead man walking,” says Will Hild, who runs Consumers’ Research, a nonprofit backed by Leonard Leo, leader of the rightward shift in the Supreme Court during Trump’s first term. While Trump himself has barely mentioned ESG, his plan to embrace fossil fuels will inevitably undermine one of its key pillars, Hild says. He adds that the conservative attacks on climate finance groups are only going to get louder.
