The H.E.A.T. Formula
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The H.E.A.T. Formula is a radically different way to look at investing your portfolio.
H- Hedges, you should always have hedges and be agnostic as to being long or short. Bonds are not a hedge
E-Edges, you should always look for edges. Preferably these are edges with some sort of psychological underpinning, structural edges, or some sort of barrier to entry.
A-Asymmetric. Everything you do, be it trades or your overall portfolio, should be designed so that heads you win a lot, tails you lose a little.
T-Themes. You should always be invested in the top themes. Most everything else is just noise.
We will continue to build out our resources here to help. In the meantime we have a model Hedges and Edges ETF portfolio.
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New: Tuttle is planning to launch a series of Put Write ETFs on $TSLA, $NVDA, $MSTR, $COIN, & $QQQ pic.twitter.com/dqIdv4b6QU
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) December 5, 2024
Today is the jobs number, markets are flat ahead of that. Bitcoin has also moved back below $100k. I talked about this yesterday, at important levels it is unusual to break through once and go from there. Expect and back and forth before the ultimate breakout. I continue to believe that the most likely direction for Bitcoin is up as you have the headwinds of a spot Bitcoin ETF and then a President and administration that is cheerleading this...
This stuff is always just stupid. Always have hedges, be in the dominant themes, and structure your trades and your portfolio for asymmetric risk....
Is This Wildly Overvalued Stock Market Doomed? Yes, but Maybe Not Yet-WSJ
I continue to see more I like on the short side than the long side. Don't' get me wrong, intermediate term I am bullish, short term things seem stretched.
CEG is a name I could add too if it breaks back above the 50 day....
On the short side I got puts on IYR...
and XHB....
Small caps look like they want to curl down...
and I'm still eying USO....
Still waiting for VIX to curl up.....
Remember, I believe you should always have hedges, but your unit size on the short side should be smaller than it is on the long side. If the market likes the jobs number then I just get rid of the shorts I need to and move on.
