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I am traveling Wednesday and Thursday. If I wake up early enough I will put out a newsletter on Wednesday. Either way we will be back Friday

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Our Next Webinar:

Topic: How to Determine the Best Potential Investment Themes.

When: Oct 24,2024 11:00 AM Pacific Time

Register in advance for this webinar:

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_nicbiSSlTwqTDXqOmfd1cA

Why Things Like Factors, Asset Classes, Styles, and Market Cap Diversification are Stupid.

Why most thematic ETFs suck.

How to use first-order, second-order, and third-order thinking to pick stocks and ETFs with the best potential upside.

One below-the-radar theme that could end up being extremely relevant regardless of who wins the election.

 For Investment Pros Only

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The US 10 year moved above 4% for the first time since August. This plus some negative news on the Magnificent 7 put a damper on the market.

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US judge orders Google to open Android to rival app stores-Insider Paper

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Google's defense could have implications for AAPL....

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Why we’re appealing the Epic Games verdict

The Epic verdict missed the obvious: Apple and Android clearly compete.

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Amazon stock sinks as Wells Fargo downgrades shares-Yahoo Finance

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Uh oh.....

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Jim Cramer counters Amazon and Apple downgrades-CNBC.com

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Themes

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AI

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Microsoft’s AI Story Is Getting Complicated-WSJ

But keeping its lead in the AI race is proving expensive—even for a company of Microsoft’s vast resources. Big tech companies have boosted spending on AI technology across the board, but Microsoft’s surge still catches the eye.

In a rare downgrade of the stock to a neutral rating, Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson said that “competition has largely caught up with Microsoft on the AI front, which reduces the justification for the current premium valuation.”

Still a long term holding for us, but I don't like this chart. It broke the 200 day moving average, which if you are trading the stock could be a short sale signal. 400 looks like next logical support.

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Buy Vertiv Stock. It’s the ‘Best Positioned’ AI Data Center Play, Analyst Says.-Barron's

“Vertiv is best positioned in our coverage to benefit from the rise in data center capacity,” she wrote.

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Love it long term, short term it's extended and nearing the May highs. Let's see....

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Jefferies came out with a note this morning to buy ASML into Q3 earnings....

Our answers to investor concerns.

- ASML needs only around €3.3bn of orders per quarter inQ3-Q4 2024 to get to €35bn of sales.

- In fact, it makes it quite likely that it will hit the high-end of its range of €40bn.

- This is because the additional orders required in Q3-Q4for €40bn is just €5.6bn per quarter.

- We expect both TSMC and DRAM orders to rise in coming quarters

I hold this long term, not a huge fan of this chart at the moment though....

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AI Power Generation

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Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG put out a piece yesterday on how it's time to fade XLU (utilities) and he expects a 7-10% correction. The ETF is up because of the AI power generation theme, but I don't disagree that's it's extended. If you are a long term investor in this space it doesn't matter that much, if you are looking to add capital I would probably wait.

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Another Mag 7 name looking at nuclear.....

Google Talks to Utilities About Nuclear Power for Data Centers-Bloomberg

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Self Defense

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GUNZ ETF

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Regional Banks

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Watch the regional banks for potential shorting opportunities if rates continue to move up.

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https://www.shortregionalbanks.com/

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China

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Now it's a bit more interesting. Why you don't chase and wait for a dip....

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China’s stock-market resurgence hits roadblock on lack of new stimulus measures-MarketWatch

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I will probably be looking at the main China names today to see if there are any chart patterns I like.

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