The H.E.A.T. Formula
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The H.E.A.T. Formula is a radically different way to look at investing your portfolio.
H- Hedges, you should always have hedges and be agnostic as to being long or short. Bonds are not a hedge
E-Edges, you should always look for edges. Preferably these are edges with some sort of psychological underpinning, structural edges, or some sort of barrier to entry.
A-Asymmetric. Everything you do, be it trades or your overall portfolio, should be designed so that heads you win a lot, tails you lose a little.
T-Themes. You should always be invested in the top themes. Most everything else is just noise.
We will continue to build out our resources here to help. In the meantime we have a model Hedges and Edges ETF portfolio.
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Our Next Webinar will be January 23,2025 at 2pm EST.
How to Make Money In Markets During 4 Years of Trump
-Three Major Investment Themes Nobody is Talking About
-Why Crypto is a Must Own and How to Trade it With Asymmetric Risk
-Three ETFs That You Want to Almost Always Be Short
-Dangers of Covered Call ETFs and a Better Approach
Register Below:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/980141392770803292
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Participating in a webinar on January 9th, details below:
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First day of the new year and kind of what I thought, futures up nicely and Bitcoin rallying back. Figured you couldn't read too much into last week's selloff, but also figure you can't read too much into this morning's rally, unless is sticks. The question to be answered now is whether the selloff worked off some overbought conditions and the bulls are back, or whether what we are seeing this morning is just a slight correction in a downtrend.
Would be looking for SPY to regain the 50 day...
If this does turn into a sell into the rally then look at the 580-1 area for potential support.
Couple of areas to watch on the QQQs. The 50 day moving average would be first and then the December 20 low of 508.47.
The Dow still looks to be in bad shape. Would also be watching the December 20 low of 42,146....
Looking at the Mag 7 names at the moment they all look more like shorts than longs.
My sense is that I would look to add to shorts today just in case.
Themes
Self Defense
New Orleans Attack, Cybertruck Explosion Raise US Security Fears-Bloomberg
Unfortunately, we think this will be a powerful theme in 2025 as more people turn to lethal and non lethal forms of self defense.
AI
Wedbush's Top 10 Tech Winners for the AI Revolution in 2025
Nvidia Should Win Again in 2025. Here’s Why.-Barron's
News vs. Noise
Stocks Cap Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century-WSJ
Some investors caution against thinking that the rapid pace of gains can continue because interest rates may remain higher than anticipated
This is noise, yes you should always be cautious, but just because the market had a great 2 years doesn't mean this year can't be similar.
Same deal here, you always want to play defense, but defense doesn't mean healthcare and consumer staples.....
After Two Stellar Years for Stocks, It’s Time to Play Defense-Barron's
“Some allocation to the underperforming defensives like consumer staples and healthcare seems like an intelligent move for 2025,” Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, wrote in a recent report. “Looking amidst the wreckage in healthcare and consumer staples could prove fruitful.”
Only news if you decide to fade these expectations.....
Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2025-Bloomberg
