We are going to start doing a live podcast with Jeremy Vreeland at Bullish/Bears every Thursday at 11:30AM EST.  We will be talking markets and stocks.  Feel free to shoot over questions or names you want us to cover.  Will have details on how to access the stream next week.

ESG

Shareholder Proposals In 2024 Send Mixed Signals To CEOs And Boards-Chief Executive

According to governance consulting firm Georgeson’s Early Proxy Season Review, although anti-ESG proposals have skyrocketed in recent years, they’ve garnered limited support from shareholders. Furthermore, while ESG proposals have also surged, support for environmental and social proposals has declined.

The False Promise of ESG Funds: Why They Fail Investors-Schiff Gold

The ineffectiveness of ESG funds is partially due to government regulations, which are becoming more restrictive by the day. The European Union’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, which came into effect in March 2021, sets strict compliance rules for companies and investors, thereby increasing compliance costs and potentially limiting investment opportunities.

Inconsistency in ESG reporting and ratings also leads to inefficient investments. MIT Sloan’s research pointed out the moderate correlation of just 0.54 between different ESG score providers, significantly lower than Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s 0.92 correlation in credit ratings. This inconsistency could lead to confusion and asset mispricing, putting private investors at a disadvantage since they typically have less access to resources and are at a higher risk of being misled by unreliable ESG information.

Furthermore, ESG investing doesn’t even fulfill its promised sustainability goals. A Wall Street Journal article noted that ESG portfolios under-represent wind energy portfolios while investing in many major companies which don’t have strong ESG agendas. This growing challenge is known as “greenwashing,” where companies overstate their environmental efforts. A study by Quilter Cheviot showed that 44% of U.K. investors are wary about greenwashing in their ESG investments. Greenwashing causes portfolios to take the standard ESG reduced return while not assisting as many environmental efforts as advertised.

ESG regulations are still in limbo, but companies are already preparing for them-Fortune

And yet, even with uncertainty over when government-mandated climate disclosures will be issued and what they will look like, experts say companies are still moving forward by measuring their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks and opportunities. And many businesses are already proactively tracking that data and sharing it publicly in anticipation of the rules changing.

Perhaps a glimpse of what’s to come here? Companies ‘Paralyzed’ as Australia Plans Tough Climate Rules-Bloomberg

Over 6,000 firms, institutions to be required to report data

Big companies estimate compliance costs could top A$3 million

Republicans should push to export energy, not emissions-Blaze Media

Countries that embark on ESG’s crusade against fossil fuels and in favor of renewable energy mandates inevitably see their energy prices skyrocket. Electricity in the European Union costs twice what it does in the United States. And electricity in the U.S. costs twice what it does in China. The costs of fuel and fertilizer follow the same trend. Higher energy costs, in turn, reduce heavy manufacturing and other energy-intensive economic activity.

DEI

Republicans are playing a dangerous game with DEI-The Hill 

Tractor Supply CEO says that DEI dust up had no measurable impact.  The chart begs to differ.  Still looks like a short.

Woke Companies

Harley Davidson CEO on why their transformation to left wing values “is for real”

If it fails to break 38 then it’s transformation into a short could be for real also.

Is Google at it again with their woke search engine? Down the Memory Hole: Google Hides Autocomplete Suggestions Related to Trump Assassination Attempt-Breitbart

Things That Get Blamed For Climate Change

Inside Kamala Harris’s Plan to Make Biden’s Unpopular EV Mandate Even More Aggressive-Washington Free Beacon

During her 2020 presidential campaign, Harris vowed to implement climate policies ensuring 50 percent of all new passenger vehicles sold are EVs by 2030 and 100 percent are EVs by 2035, an archived copy of her campaign website shows. She also backed a mandate requiring all new vehicle purchases for corporate fleets, transportation networks, and heavy-duty vehicles be electric by 2030.

Woke

Federal courts spike piece of DeSantis ‘Stop Woke’ law-Politico

A federal judge permanently shut down a significant piece of Florida’s so-called Stop Woke Act on Friday, delivering a devastating blow to a signature law pushed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to restrict workplace trainings about race.

A film that isn’t woke becoming a hit, hmmm.   Hollywood Shifts as Woke Bombs at the Box Office-WSJ

This month’s hit movie “Twisters” is full of wonders: pickup trucks take flight, an entire town gets put through nature’s blender. Perhaps most astonishing, however, is what isn’t in it: any mention of climate change.

That wasn’t happenstance. The film’s director, Lee Isaac Chung, said the omission was deliberate. “I just don’t feel like films are meant to be message-oriented,” he told CNN.

Market

Great bounce on Friday, this week will probably tell us whether that was just an oversold rally or the beginning of another leg up.  40% of the market cap announces earnings this week, including MSFT on Tuesday, META on Wednesday, and AMZN and APPL on Thursday.  We also have the Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement on Wednesday.  After the close today, Jensen Huang is doing a fireside chat at the SIGGRAPH Conference.  

Nvidia Faces a Make-or-Break Week as AI Stocks Face Big Test-Barron’s

“Big earnings results are coming from close to $10 trillion worth of Big Tech…if last week was anything to go by, nothing short of knockout results will do.”

If that wasn’t enough, Wednesday is FOMC and Friday is non farm payrolls.  

This is going to be key.  A Fed Rate Cut is Finally Within View-WSJ

While Federal Reserve officials aren’t likely to change interest rates in the coming week, their meeting will nonetheless be one of the most consequential in a while.

Not just our central bank this week.  Traders Fret as 32-Hour Central Bank Spree Hangs Over Market-Bloomberg

Major central banks are set to meet in Tokyo and Washington on Wednesday and London on Thursday, with traders struggling to decide if the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates and then when and by how much the Federal Reserve and Bank of England will cut them.

SPY had an undercut and rally at the 50 day on Friday so that ought to be key support.

QQQs are still a lot weaker and are about 10 points below their 50 day.  The 455 area ought to be downside support.  

Small caps look to be consolidating gains.  So far this morning they continue to be the strongest area.  Watch the 10 day for support and 227ish for a breakout.

What’s driving the market is the Fed is about to embark on an easing cycle so people buy the dips.  The Dow Surged 650 Points.  Here is What’s Driving the Market-Barron’s

Until proven otherwise you still need to assume the Fed has your back when the next move is a cut.  Opinion: Stock investors have counted on the Fed to save them. Maybe not this time.-MarketWatch

I agree.  Alphabet Drops Again-on SearchGPT.  It’s Time to Buy-Barron’s

More big earnings next week.  What it means is more volatility. Apple and Microsoft are among the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks set to report next week. Here’s what that means-CNBC Pro

Fade AI at your peril.  AI Doubts Are Growing. Investors Could Be Making A Mistake-WSJ

I’m actually making the opposite argument. If anyone sold stocks in the belief that AI investment will slow, they haven’t been listening to the people doing the spending. Big Tech companies will continue to buy AI hardware from Nvidia and the other vendors.

This happens, people crowd into trades and then rush for the exits.  Unless something has fundamentally changed this provides some great opportunities to buy back in at lower prices.  Some of 2024’s most popular trades are coming undone after reaching ‘stupid’ levels-MarketWatch

Saylor’s BEAR case for Bitcoin is $3 Million by 2045.  That undercut and rally at the 200 day looks like it was a killer entry point.  Looks a bit extended at the moment.

Trump also joined in.  Trump Adds Crypto to His ‘America First’ Agenda-WSJ

The Republican presidential candidate pledges to create a national bitcoin stockpile and form a council to set regulatory policy

Everything Else

This is kind of funny, a website has been created for people who donated to Biden and now want a refund.  

Meanwhile the whole brat thing seems to be working for Kamala.

The battle over the Supreme Court is likely to get ugly as both parties now fully realize whoever has control over the court has control over everything.  

PBD thinks the Olympics are for ADULTS ONLY.  He’s not the only one.  Christians kind of pissed about this also…

Of course they dropped the charges against the rioters who assaulted police during the pro-Palestinian riots.  

Karoline Stancik settled with the Defense Department-X

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