Market

I am scheduled to be on the Charles Schwab Network today at 9:45AM to talk about the market. I am also scheduled to be on Bloomberg on Monday at 12:15 to talk about single stock ETFs.

What started off looking ugly ended up being a risk on day. Powell was interviewed in the morning and came out slightly dovish, indicating that data was back on the disinflation trend. From Jefferies…

Our view remains that we should see a slowing down of the employment data over the coming months. If employment slows and the disinflation trend in intact (we don't need to see sharp fall in inflation, but a gradual move lower and definitely not an increase), Fed will deliver a September rate cut. Our view stems from our belief that leaving a positive legacy is an important consideration for Powell. A 25bp cut may not make much difference to the economy, but if the Fed is proactive, then no one can blame Powell for not doing his job by keeping rates higher for longer and engineering a slowdown.

Advance/Decline, which was ugly the day before, looked pretty strong.

The S&P 500 percent of stocks above their 20 day MA improved a bit.

NVDA was red again, so it was positive the see the market rally without it. TSLA continued it’s breakout, and is green this morning. We are long in our trend following model, but it just showed up in one of our short screens and if it opens here we would also be shorting it this morning.

Doubt we are alone as we saw pretty big flows into our inverse TSLA ETF yesterday.

I think there are areas of the market you want to buy if it seems like Trump will be elected. You can trade DJT, and I like the law and order names (GEO, AXON, SWBI, CXW, etc). I’d be careful shorting solar’s just because of the AI energy need. I do not think Treasuries are the trade, at least not based on Trump. The only candidate that really even talks about the deficit is RFK Jr. and it’s highly unlikely he gets elected. Sudden Return of the Trump Trade Sends Treasurys Reeling-WSJ

ESG

Estimated $700 Million Cost of Texas Anti-ESG Laws Based on Faulty Data, New Report Asserts-The Texan

The estimated cost of Texas’ pair of anti-Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) laws was based on faulty data, a new report from the American Energy Institute states.

Woke Companies

New York Pension Fund to Vote Against Best Buy Chairman in Dispute Over LGBTQ Support-WSJ

The office of New York State’s comptroller said it would vote against re-electing Best Buy’s chairman and other key board members next year over questions regarding the retailer’s commitment to the LGBTQ community.

Personally bought the dip in BBY the other day, would like to see it find support at the 50 day.

Black farmers’ association calls for Tractor Supply CEO’s resignation after company cuts DEI efforts-AP News

TSCO showed up in one of my mean reversion models this morning, personally will be buying on a 2% or more dip. Would love to see the 260 area hold.

Biden

My initial thinking was that the debate, when it was held, the format, the reaction afterwards, etc, was carefully choreographed and planned. Now I think it’s just a sh&^%t show. Democratic Unity Cracks in Wake of Biden’s Debate Performance-WSJ

A show of Democratic unity in the wake of President Biden’s disastrous debate performance is starting to crack as a handful of lawmakers break ranks to warn the party is heading for defeat.

Europe

ROOKE: Wondering Why Europe Is Turning ‘Right-Wing’? Look No Further Than A Girl’s Plea For Help-Daily Caller

These policies are rapidly losing appeal in France, Germany, and Ireland. Their citizens, especially the younger generation, are begging for someone to come in and save their homelands, like this French girl, Lili R, who posted how “unbearable” daily life has become.

“I am 26 years old, blonde, with light eyes, and I have always lived in the 6th arrondissement of Lyon, which is thought of as the poshest area in Lyon, and my daily life has become unbearable. I write this because, ten years ago, I could go out with my friends in the evening, at any hour, without being bothered, insulted, followed, or stabbed,” she wrote, according to an online translation.

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