The Woke Street Journal
Market
Today is the long awaited launch of BTCL (2x Long Spot Bitcoin) and BTCZ (2x Short Spot Bitcoin).
I am going to be on Wolf_Financial spaces Thursday at 2pm to talk about our new 2x Bitcoin ETFs.
https://x.com/WOLF_Financial/status/1809986104394764594
That’s what you would be doing if you were watching Powell yesterday.
Today I am not going to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions." In later questioning, he delivered the balanced response "I'm going to try to avoid sending any really specific signals about timing today because it's going to depend on the data. It also matters what's going on in the labor market though. You know we've also said that if the labor market weakens unexpectedly that could be a case for loosening policy."
We have more Powell today followed by CPI and PPI to end the week. SPY puts for Thursday and Friday are really not showing much of a bump in implied volatility, leading me to believe that most people think that the inflation numbers are not going to move things much. That usually means that they will.
From Nickileaks…
Powell Inches the Fed Closer to Cutting Rates-WSJ
Looking like September.
Will get even worse if the Fed messes this up. More Americans are struggling even as inflation cools — here’s why-CNBC
“Cooling inflation is not the same as a substantial reduction in prices,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. “Elevated prices have largely persisted, which means that Americans continue to face affordability challenges on a range of things both necessary and discretionary, including homes, vehicles, car insurance, food, electricity and travel.”
Software is really starting to come in now after going parabolic. I almost never chase moves like this, but love pullbacks in an uptrend.
ORCL, ADSK, and MSFT all popped up on our long watchlist for today.
This caught my eye from Goldman on AI.
GEN AI: TOO MUCH SPEND, TOO LITTLE BENEFIT?
Tech giants and beyond are set to spend over $1tn on AI capex in coming years, with so far little to show for it. So, will this large spend ever pay off? MIT’s Daron Acemoglu and GS’ Jim Covello are skeptical, with Acemoglu seeing only limited US economic upside from AI over the next decade and Covello arguing that the technology isn’t designed to solve the complex problems that would justify the costs, which may not decline as many expect. But GS’ Joseph Briggs, Kash Rangan, and Eric Sheridan remain more optimistic about AI’s economic potential and its ability to ultimately generate returns beyond the current “picks and shovels” phase, even if AI’s “killer application” has yet to emerge.
Elsewhere in AI….
Why Nvidia’s stock can scale the ‘wall of worry,’ according to UBS-MarketWatch
UBS’s Arcuri said investors see a “wall of worry” of sorts for Nvidia NVDA, +2.48%, but that’s one that the company should be able to climb, provided his outlook pans out. Arcuri is upbeat about Nvidia’s new Blackwell chip lineup, which will start shipping later this year.
And…
This depends on what type of investor you are. I have trading models for AI stocks that I trade in and out of, mostly daily, but I also have a long term basket using longer dated options. It Might Be Time to Sell Some of Your AI Stocks-Barron’s
Pettit believes we aren’t in an AI bubble, because looking at the longer term, things haven’t gotten too frothy: “The difference versus the Tech Bubble, and even the post-Covid unwind, is the fundamentals. Our estimates suggest stock prices imply lofty expectations, but long-run consensus estimates suggest most are attainable. Essentially, sentiment is very optimistic but still seems shy of a full-blown bubble.”
Earnings are a binary bet, I would never buy something ahead of earnings just because it looked cheap. Wall Street has a way of making cheap even cheaper. 4 Cheap Stocks to Buy Ahead of Earnings-Barron’s
ESG
A Celebrity-Backed Climate Startup Unravels After Dubious Deals-Bloomberg
But today Aspiration is struggling to stay afloat and faces an investigation by US authorities, including the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The inside story of the unraveling of this once-promising climate company comes down to its hurried effort to start a new business line—and boost its revenues—by selling sustainability services, such as tree planting, to other companies.
Woke Companies
Report: John Deere goes ‘woke’-Catholic Vote
John Deere “has been one of the most beloved brands by conservative farmers but recently on CEO John May’s watch, they’ve gone woke,” Starbuck wrote.
Oof, looks like a lot of the short sale profits have already been realized, but the drop below $350 could be a reload spot.
Woke
Woke activists oppose California bill making it a felony to purchase sex from children, claiming it will harm LGBTQ community, people or color-Post Millennial
Hmmm. Related? Whistleblowers Detail How 85,000 ‘Unaccompanied Minors’ Went Missing After Biden Admin Dropped Them Off With ‘Sponsors’-Daily Wire
The Department of Human Services has lost at least 85,000 children who crossed the border illegally as “unaccompanied minors” after placing them with “sponsors” who may be trafficking the children into prostitution or forced labor, according to multiple government whistleblowers who laid out the process to a Senate panel Tuesday.
Awful. Liberal Media Outlets Label Deceased GOP Senator Climate ‘Denier’ In Obituaries-Daily Caller
The NYT’s headline read “James M. Inhofe, Senator Who Denied Climate Change, Dies at 89.” It further referred to him as “arguably Washington’s most prominent denier of the established science of human-generated climate change.”
Election
When Donald Trump was hit with four indictments last year, the prevailing Democratic belief was that Mr. Trump would be a convicted felon by Election Day. How could President Biden then possibly lose? Yet trying to defeat Mr. Trump through the courts instead of at the polls has turned out to be one of the great political miscalculations in presidential history.
Stephanopoulos Caught On Camera After Biden Interview: ‘I Don’t Think He Can Serve Four More Years’-Daily Wire
President Joe Biden reportedly skipped a meeting with world leaders — which was intentionally set up “in the early evening” — shortly after the war in Ukraine erupted because he needed to “go to bed.”
The startling revelation raises serious concerns about Biden’s ability to manage crises beyond the 6-hour schedule he keeps – 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. — which also includes naps.
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