The Woke Street Journal
Election
RFK Jr.’s Campaign Window Is Closing-WSJ
Kennedy spent most of the week at a state courtroom in Albany, N.Y., as a witness in a challenge to his claims of legal residency in New York. The suit, brought by a group of voters and supported by a Democratic-aligned political-action committee, says Kennedy’s legal residence is actually in California.
The ruling could have a big effect: If a judge finds the address isn’t valid, it could block Kennedy from the ballot in New York and spark challenges in other states. It also could prevent Kennedy’s campaign from winning electoral votes from California, which is Shanahan’s home state. The Constitution says presidential electors can’t cast ballots for two people from their own state—a de facto ban on having a president and vice president from the same place.
Real interesting week for RFK Jr. First, there is this latest attack. He also seemed to get an endorsement from Joe Rogan, which was later walked back as not quite an endorsement.
I do agree with what Joe said though….
“I am a fan. He’s the only one that makes sense to me,” Rogan said on a recent episode on his podcast. “He’s the only one that doesn’t attack people. He attacks actions and ideas. But he’s much more reasonable and intelligent.”
I would love this election to be about policy, not about whether JD Vance has sex with couches or whether Walz drinks horse semen. I still think he could have a massive impact on this election, just not sure which way.
Trump continues to step on every rake he can find. Trump Lashes Out at Joe Rogan Following RFK Jr. Endorsement-Daily Beast
Kamala Harris Promises Amnesty for Millions of Illegal Aliens, Nationwide Mail-In Voting-Breitbart
Really? Tim Walz’s Masculinity Is Terrifying to Republicans-Bloomberg
Apparently not all of Trump’s ideas are radical. Kamala is pushing for no tax on tips.
RFK Jr. Slams federal surveillance of Tulsi Gabbard.
Censorship
Where would the world be with out Elon? Condemn the U.K., Sue Advertisers: All in a Week for Elon Musk The billionaire opened two fights in the name of free speech-WSJ
Free speech is under attack in the UK and Walz has made comments about the First Amendment. There are a lot of issues at the moment that I believe are existential, free speech is right up there.
Woke Companies
Delta Airlines Goes Woke-Townhall
This week, the airline announced that it would no longer say “ladies and gentlemen” over the loudspeaker to meet its Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) standards.
Would like to see this bump up against the 200 day moving average to short it.
However, it does look a lot more attractive as a short using the weekly chart.
Costco, Walmart face impossible 'woke' versus 'anti-woke' choice-The Street
Lander has tried to leverage his state's investment portfolio to try to get Walmart, Costco and select other retailers to sell mifepristone.
Disney bringing back the dwarves
ESG
War on ESG Investing Must Shift To Proxy Advisers-Newsday
The 'G' in ESG is gaining more shareholder love than the 'E' or 'S'-Yahoo
That 25% success rate is considerably higher than E and S proposals that would force companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adopt more sustainable supply chain practices, and adopt diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) targets.
Just two environmentally focused proposals received majority shareholder backing during the same period measured by Freshfields.
DEI
For Anti-DEI Groups Swarming Annual Meetings, Even a Loss Is a Win-Bloomberg
Each year, companies face hundreds of resolutions from progressive groups to change their policies to be more supportive of employee diversity, labor rights and other social issues. Until 2022, there were just a few proposals from groups that opposed these initiatives. But as the backlash against diversity, equity and inclusion has intensified in the US, the number of so-called anti-DEI proposals have multiplied.
Things That Get Blamed For Climate Change
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz last year signed one of America’s most aggressive climate laws, mandating that 100% of the state’s electricity come from carbon-free sources by 2040. Even if he doesn’t ascend to national office, he may end up leaving not only Minnesota but other states in the dark. As we show in a new paper, politicians like Mr. Walz are destroying the electricity markets that are essential to economic success and even individual survival.
Didn’t President Biden promise his Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) would create millions of green jobs? In case he missed the news, SunPower, one of the country’s top rooftop solar installers, this week declared bankruptcy. Meantime, more companies are canceling green energy projects.
The Real Green Energy Transition: Auto Maker Layoffs-WSJ
Stellantis is showing what the real green-energy transition looks like: On Friday the auto maker announced plans to lay off 2,450 workers in Michigan as it ramps up electric-vehicle production.
Market
Interesting day on Friday. The bears tried, and failed to take stocks down. Small caps did end in the red….
So much for the rotation. IWM is now between the 50 and 200. At this point it’s a short, with the 50 day as a stop.
SPY is still downtrendyish (just made that word up) but it’s rebounding nicely off the lows.
The weekly chart is a bit more troubling, as we did make a lower low.
Real interesting week. Monday people were talking about the end of the world, Fed needs to do an emergency rate cut, etc. Fast forward to Friday and SPY is 9 cents over last Friday’s close.
Stocks Brought a Week of Whiplash. It Might Not Be Over Yet.-Barron's
May not. Hard to believe we go from outright panic to everything is fine in a couple of days. CPI, PPI, and retail sales this week could help decide where we go from here.
I think there are a few great lessons from this past week:
- If you were panicking then you are taking too much risk
- This is not easy
You are going to start seeing a bunch of stuff like this. The Market Is Scary. These Stocks and Bonds Can Protect Your Portfolio. Adding defensive stocks can allow investors to stay invested while protecting themselves if the economy goes into recession.-Barron's. There is no such thing as a “defensive” stock. Some are less volatile than others but that changes. Utilities were once thought of as “defensive” but now they are AI plays. The article mentions NEE, a stock I trade. Look at the weekly chart, this is not a stable stock anymore.
You need to have a well thought out methodology and stick to it, but you also get feedback from the markets and you can tweak your methodology accordingly, like when the market tells you that you are taking too much risk. This week finally convinced me to write the book I’ve been thinking about since “How Harvard & Yale Beat the Market” in 2009. Working title at the moment is “The Unbalanced Portfolio”, yes it’s a bit of a dig at balanced portfolios, which I think are stupid. I think investors could get value from a different perspective on how to look at markets.
And stuff like this. Bonds Are Back as a Hedge After Failing Investors for Years-Bloomberg
Here’s a weekly chart of TLT, it was down over 2% last week.
This, on the other hand, is a great way to reduce risk. Traders Wary of Going Back to All-In on Stocks Weigh Up Options-Bloomberg
Even better if you combine T Bills with options.
Yes. Not blindly, you should have a well thought out way to buy the dip—RSI, Connors RSI, Williams % R, Internal Bar Strength, etc. Better yet, use all of them. Market Turmoil Revives Age-Old Question: Should You Buy the Dip?-WSJ I bought a ton Wednesday at the close. Not because I am so smart and I knew that Thursday would be a big up day, but because all my indicators flashed buy signals. Not going to lie, it was scary as f&^%ck, but I always find my best trades are when I’m the most scared.
Why Nvidia Is Still the Undisputed King of AI-WSJ
Over the past two decades, Nvidia has created what is known in tech as a “walled garden,” not unlike the one created by Apple. While Apple’s ecosystem of software and services is aimed at consumers, Nvidia’s focus has long been the developers who build artificial-intelligence systems and other software with its chips.
Nvidia’s walled garden explains why, despite competition from other chip makers and even tech giants like Google and Amazon, Nvidia is highly unlikely to lose meaningful AI market share in the next few years.
Most of what I do is short term mean reversion with a bit of trend following thrown in, but I do have a longer term options portfolio of AI names (Thank you Larry Connors), and NVDA is the core of it. I also trade NVDA short term in a fixed model, which got out Thursday at the close. I do still own it in a NASDAQ pull back model. Would like to see it break above the 10 day and it has to hold $100.
Going to keep hammering this theme. Tech companies want nuclear power. Some utilities are throwing up roadblocks-CNBC.com
“When you’re talking about large [demand] load that also wants to use zero-emission energy, you’re going to bring it very close to nuclear power plants,” Dominguez said on Constellation’s second-quarter earnings call Tuesday. Constellation, headquartered in Baltimore, operates 21 of the 93 reactors in the U.S.
I agree, it does seem far fetched, but what if it isn’t? Trump’s Plan for a U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Looks Far-Fetched-WSJ. I continue to believe the spot Bitcoin ETF was a game changer.
Everything Else
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