Our ETFs

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ETF Model Portfolios

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Your Wealth Comes First Podcast

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We are pleased to announce that options are now trading on MSTU and MSTZ

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Going to be participating in the Market Minds Summit on 9/25 at 2:45PM EST. I still think I have some complimentary tickets left so hit me up if you want one.

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marketmindssummit.com 

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ESG

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Top US money managers cut support for ESG proposals amid Republican pushback-NY Post

BlackRock – the world’s largest money manager with around $10.5 trillion dollars under management, according to Statista – said it voted for 4% of the environmental proposals in the 12 months ending June, a decline from the 7% it voted for the year before.

The Three Biggest US Money Managers Have Been Snubbing ESG Proposals-Finimize

State Street, Vanguard, and BlackRock own a combined 20% of all S&P 500 companies, so their votes carry serious weight. Back in 2021, the trio used that power to champion a record number of proposals related to climate change, diversity, and human rights. But they’ve since changed their tune. This year, State Street’s investing arm backed just 6% of environmental proposals and 7% of social ones, BlackRock voted for 4% of ESG proposals, and Vanguard a flat zero. Those figures are all down from the same time last year, reflecting the shift in the finance industry.

Stand by ESG? The State of 2024 U.S. Sustainability Reports-Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance

The acronym “ESG” is down but certainly not out. The most common key word in 2024 report titles was “Sustainability” (39%), overtaking last year’s leader “ESG” (24%, down from 35% in 2023). However, the “ESG” acronym appeared 62 times within 2024 Sustainability Reports on average, and most companies that dropped “ESG” from their 2024 report title used it within their 2024 report.

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It’s Time to Unbundle ESG-Harvard Business Review

ESG is at an inflection point. It has come to represent a broad and inchoate aspiration for what business should be doing beyond maximizing shareholder value. With ESG advocates on the defensive, business leaders need a new roadmap to determine which factors to incorporate into their business strategies and operations – and their political advocacy – and how they will communicate this to their stakeholders. Leaders should adopt a two-pronged approach: 1) Identify the sustainability issues that have the most potential impact on the bottom line and solve for them; and 2) Identify the most material negative impacts your firm is having on society and solve for them. Both of these require scanning for the biggest opportunities and threats that environmental, social, and governance issues pose to your company’s short- and long-term competitiveness.

I have no problem with number 1. If sustainability issues are impacting the bottom line it is your duty to solve for them. 2. is the problem. Who defines what is an "impact on society"?

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ESG No Longer a Big Deal for Banks – and for Good Reason-Finews.com

Banks today see ESG mainly as a regulatory obligation rather than a business opportunity. This shift is also due to increasing regulatory requirements. Since the beginning of the year, banks have been required to assess the sustainability preferences of their clients. If clients have sustainable investment preferences, banks must ensure that the offered investment products align with these preferences in the future.

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DEI

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Caterpillar makes policy changes in yet another corporate DEI rollback-Fox Business

A memo sent by Caterpillar executives to the company's employees that was reviewed by FOX Business explained that the DEI changes include requiring that all corporate training be oriented to focus on business operations, as well as requiring approval from senior leaders for bringing in external speakers or participating in external surveys and awards.

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US Air Force has DEI 'goal' to reduce 'white male population' in officer ranks: report-Post Millennial

According to the Daily Caller, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman CQ Brown issued a memorandum in 2022 that said the military branch was changing up its racial and gender demographic goals for applicants to the officer program in an effort to increase "diversity and inclusion." Documents obtained by the Caller relating to the demographic goals included slides from a presentation that details how to reach a reduced number of white males in the Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC) program.

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Florida Attorney General calls for probe of Starbucks' DEI practices-MSN

“The Starbucks policies described above appear on their face to be racial quotas. They set specific race-based employment targets,” Moody wrote, saying at a minimum the policies raise “sufficient concerns that the commission should use its investigatory powers to ensure Florida law is being followed.

Looks shortable here on a move below the 10 day moving average...

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Woke

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Why Scott Perry, brigadier general, ultimately resigned: the Army's woke agenda betrayed his core values-Fox News

"The culminating point for me is when my boss came to me and said, ‘You're going to be in charge of enforcing the gender reassignment policy in the command,’" he said.

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Something's wrong when people are fleeing the West for Russia.....

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Dozens from UK take up Putin’s offer to ditch ‘woke’ West and move to Russia-Telegraph

Politics

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Yep...

Black Republican Who Called Himself a ‘Nazi’ Is Another MAGA Failure-Bloomberg

Conservatives need to stop backing cartoonish candidates like Mark Robinson.

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Republican Party Kamikazes-WSJ

In North Carolina and D.C., the party’s suicidal impulses are on display.

If you want to understand why Republicans keep losing elections they should win, events this week in North Carolina and Washington, D.C., are illustrative. The party keeps nominating candidates whose record makes them unelectable in competitive races, and too many candidates who happen to win in safe GOP seats have no interest in governing.

Victory for free markets......

The House Rejects the Biden EV Mandate-WSJ

The House on Friday voted, 215-191, to overturn the Environmental Protection Agency’s vehicle emissions rule, with eight Democrats joining Republicans. Kamala Harris says she doesn’t support an electric vehicle mandate, but that’s what the Biden EPA rule effectively is.

Ford lost $44,000 on each EV sold in the second quarter, which is more than some of its trucks retail for. Auto makers are scaling back EV investment amid slowing demand. Ford announced last month it is cancelling production of an electric SUV and delaying an electric pickup. The same week Stellantis delayed retooling a shuttered plant in Belvidere, Ill., for EV production. The Energy Department awarded Stellantis $335 million in subsidies to convert the plant to make EVs. President Biden boasted about the plant in his State of the Union address this year.

Arizona Supreme Court: 98,000 People with Unconfirmed Citizenship Can Vote-Breitbart

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House Speaker Johnson axes Trump voting restrictions in new government funding bill-CNBC.com

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Market

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Kind of a nothing day considering it was triple witching on Friday but to be expected to see the market digest gains from the FOMC. SPY is at the highs....

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QQQs are not.....

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Dow is at highs...

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IWM is getting there.....

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Hearing some people say that this signals a great rotation out of tech and into a more broadly based rally. I would be careful with that. Remember with small caps that the Russell 2000 is a crap index. Remember also that this leg of the rally has been driven by AI and AI tangential. The AI names can't go up in a straight line, so from time to time money has to rotate. I still believe the average consumer is stretched to the breaking point, if they haven't broken already. Was talking about this last week with a very smart woman and we were wondering what happens to the economy and the markets if the rich are doing just as well as ever, but the non-rich are devastated? Don't know the answer to that, but assume we will find out. Until then I am sticking with my main themes:

1. AI and AI related

2. Weight Loss

3. Self Defense

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Contrary to Media Myth, U.S. Urban Crime Rates Are Up-WSJ

The results aren’t pretty. According to the NCVS, the urban violent-crime rate increased 40% from 2019 to 2023. Excluding simple assault, the urban violent-crime rate rose 54% over that span. From 2022 to 2023, the urban violent-crime rate didn’t change to a statistically significant degree, so these higher crime rates appear to be the new norm in America’s cities.

4. Argentina (I got out of the Argentine names, probably early and kind of kicking myself. Will look for a spot to get back in)

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From Jefferies.....

Early last week, we had argued that we need three volatility events to be out of the way for investors to be more comfortable with risky assets. The first two (Fed and BoJ) passed in a supportive manner. For risky assets investors, we now need the next payroll report to indicate that the economy and employment picture is still robust. Positioning is still light and if the third event risk passes without any concerns, we should get a green light for risky assets over the coming weeks.

Speaking of AI related, the nuclear names went nuclear on Friday. I've been looking for a dip to get into CEG. Sometimes waiting for a dip works out great, other times you never get it. I can take solace in the fact that I am in OKLO, NNE, and SMR.

These are all names that we have been talking about on The Watchlist.

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Opinion: Tech giants desperate to power AI data centers are turning to nuclear disaster sites — despite the risks-MarketWatch

“Powering industries critical to our nation’s global economic and technological competitiveness, including data centers, requires an abundance of energy that is carbon-free and reliable every hour of every day, and nuclear plants are the only energy sources that can consistently deliver on that promise,” said Joe Dominguez, president and chief executive of Constellation, in a statement.

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Uranium ETFs rally amid plans to revive nuclear reactor in Microsoft agreement-MarketWatch

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World’s biggest banks pledge support for nuclear power-FT

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Behind Microsoft’s AI Power Deal-WSJ

Artificial intelligence is increasing demand for power while baseload plants that provide power around the clock shut down. New data centers are on hold because the grid can’t support AI systems with intermittent wind and solar. Hence, the Microsoft deal.

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Speaking of AI power generation, could natural gas be the next area of growth? According to Jefferies.....

While we believe the continued data center roll out and AI proliferation will be supportive for natural gas consumption in the US, key questions remain in realizing these forecasts. In order for gas to be utilized, data centers must be built in areas where there is strong gas availability (e.g. Northeast) and then developers must choose whether to connect the facility to the grid or use distributed onsite natural gas generators. Furthermore, on the supply side, questions remain on planned coal / gas plant retirements, renewables build out, technology company environmental targets, and government policies. While on the demand side, potential computing efficiency gains, chip improvements, and other prospective technological developments are unknown variables.

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In terms of great minds thinking alike, Eliant Capital had a note out this weekend on the natural gas names.

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‍NVDA consolidating around the 50 day, looking like it wants to set up for another leg up....

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I also like ASML down here...

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Sorry, the Fed Can’t Save Us From a Bear Market-WSJ

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Maybe, maybe not. But, it shouldn't matter. You need to be agnostic between long and short, you should incorporate hedges into your portfolio, and you need to spend a lot of time on trade construction. There are ways to construct your long trades so that in the words of the immortal Larry Connors---"Heads you win a lot, Tails you don't lose at all or you lose a little" (Think I may have misquoted you a bit, sorry Larry, but the gist is accurate).

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Why you should ignore things like "stocks go down in September"....

Stocks poised for first September gain in 5 years. Why more good times could lie ahead.-MarketWatch

September has historically been the worst month for U.S. stocks — but not this year

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