The Woke Street Journal
Matthew Tuttle Keeps Challenging the Establishment-ETF.com
ETF Innovator Offers Early Exposure to Hot Stocks-ETF.com
How Covered Call Strategies Are Evolving to New Structures-NASDAQ Trade Talks
Election
How Trump Won Back Complete Control of the GOP-WSJ
At this week’s Republican National Convention, fellow Republicans, even onetime critics, have elevated him to hero status, and Trump has doubled down on his populist makeover of the party by picking Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. Deep-pocketed tech executives, led by Elon Musk, also are turning Trump’s way.
This is huge. I would argue we now really have four political movements—establishment right, establishment left, populist right, and populist left. Maybe this started with Ross Perot, maybe Sarah Palin, but it definitely came to the fore in 2016 with Bernie Sanders and Trump. Bernie is the populist left, and he was poised to take over the Democratic party. The Democrats wouldn’t let him do it in 2016 or 2020 and he fell in line. They smartly wouldn’t even let RFK Jr. in the door, as he would have done to the Democrats what Trump did to the Republicans. If they truly wanted to beat Trump they would give the nomination to RFK, but he is more of a threat to the establishment than Trump is. On the Republican side, the establishment tried to fight Trump in 2016 and the RNC was divided. Contrast that to this year and it is united under Trump and the populist agenda. Interesting to see how this whole dynamic continues to take shape.
The Democratic coalition backing President Biden showed new signs of cracking Wednesday as top congressional leaders successfully pushed to delay a procedural vote on his nomination and Rep. Adam Schiff of California called for Biden to bow out of the race in the midst of growing party fears of steep down-ballot losses.
My sense after the assassination attempt was that Biden wasn’t going anywhere. However, his stating that he would withdraw if his doctors found an issue and then him immediately coming down with Covid seem a bit strange to me. Sounds almost like a graceful way to exit. Biden says he might quit presidential race if ‘medical condition’ emerged-CNBC.com
This shooting keeps getting weirder and weirder. I am struggling to believe that a 20 year old shooter outwitted law enforcement without help. Some interesting comments from Erick-Woods Erickson this morning taking the other side of that….
The reality is we are governed by idiots. The bureaucracy that cannot deliver the mail on time cannot do much competently. The reality is Trump survived by the grace of God against a confluence of incompetence. To restore trust in institutions, people must be held accountable. But Joe Biden, who fired no one after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, nor fired his Secretary of Defense for disappearing while on the job, nor fired anyone else ever, will not fire the Director of the Secret Service. With no accountability, there is no incentive for competence.
Uh, no. Joy Reid: If ‘Elderly’ Biden Recovers from COVID, It’s ‘Same’ Sign of Strength as Trump Recovering from Being Shot-Breitbart
DEI
Deere Slashes Diversity Initiatives After Backlash From Conservative Activist-WSJ
Deere DE 2.02%increase; green up pointing triangle & Co. said it would dial back some of its diversity and inclusion initiatives after it was targeted by a conservative activist, becoming the second agricultural company in recent weeks to bow to such criticism.
Deere, the world’s largest seller of farm equipment, said it would ensure the absence of what it described as “socially motivated messages” from company-mandated training materials and policies unless otherwise required. It said that diversity quotas have never been company policy and that it wouldn’t participate in or support “social or cultural awareness parades, festivals, or events.”
Looks like a long here, perhaps with the 200 day as a stop. Resistance at 395 and 415.
DEI efforts may be under attack, but companies aren't retreating from commitments-USA Today
The vast majority – 96% – of corporate social impact professionals in 125 major companies say DEI commitments have either stayed the same (83%) or increased (13%), according to a new survey that the Association of Corporate Citizenship Professionals and YourCause from Blackbaud shared exclusively with USA TODAY.
ESG
Some bad news for ESG fans……
Wall Street Starts Calling Time on ESG Labels After Backlash-Bloomberg
In its place is “sustainability,” a synonym many banks and money managers are using instead, amid the increasingly politicized debate over climate change and corporate diversity in the US.
Backlash Against ESG Seen in Sharp Decline of Fund Launches-Bloomberg
At some of the world’s biggest asset managers, ESG fund launches are quietly stalling.
And some good news (in Europe)…..
ETFs Are on a Roll, Despite Waning ESG Interest-Morningstar
The European exchange-traded fund (ETF) market has closed the second quarter of the year with flows of €53 billion (£44.5 billion), the highest on record. In the first half of the year, investors poured €98 billion into ETFs, paving the way for a record-breaking year for the investment vehicle.
And this….
90% of CFOs say ESG issues will be a major focus over the next 5 years-CFO
A large majority of finance chiefs say they feel the heat on sustainability issues from multiple stakeholder groups.
A CFOs loyalty is to shareholders, not stakeholders, full stop.
Market
The rotation we have seen over the past few days continued somewhat yesterday with the Dow up while everything else got crushed. Small caps didn’t participate, but weren’t down as much as the Nasdaq or SPX.
Tech Shares Log Worst Day of 2024-WSJ
A drop in Magnificent Seven shares helped send the tech-heavy gauge down 2.8%, its biggest one-day decline since December 2022. The S&P 500 fell 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, added 0.6%, clinching a fresh high.
This morning looks like it could go either way, they are trying to keep the QQQs green, and NVDA especially. My sense continues to be that you buy the dips and sell the rips and what we are seeing is just a healthy rotation (albeit one that doesn’t look healthy) that take some of the froth out.
Goldman disagrees…
Don’t buy the dip as the summer slump is officially here, says Goldman strategist-MarketWatch
“The pain trade is no longer higher from here. I am not buying the dip,” Rubner told clients in a note.
ASML was the named catalyst yesterday on a report that the Biden administration is trying to prevent their equipment from being sent to China. They also reported earnings with guidance below forecast. I am not an AI expert by any means, but my understanding is that if you want to do anything in AI you need ASML. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet’s comments probably didn’t help the market much…
"I think what we have seen with AI is a major investment from many companies in supercomputer in the ability basically to train models. What we still miss in AI, I think, is the emergence of end product. So I think today, there's not much revenue made on AI. There's just a lot of investment. What we see is still that investment require a lot of capacity."
Outside of the semi’s, I am most interested in the regional banks. They continued to ramp yesterday and one of my short models triggered shorts on a bunch of them, including RF, PNC, CFG, and KEY. We also continue to see volume and flows in SKRE.
I still also think anything power related should be bought on dips. AI will require a ton of power. Utility Stocks Got Hit by the Trump Trade. Why They Still Look Good.-Barron’s
The reason for the drop is simple: A second Trump term could reduce or eliminate tax credits supporting the buildout of utility-scale wind power and solar projects, effectively making renewable power projects more expensive to build and finance.
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