The news of the day is obviously the Trump verdict. No surprise from me, was pretty obvious the fix was in here. Interestingly, seeing a lot of media commentary doubting he gets sentenced to prison time, this from the WSJ for example….

It is possible, though perhaps not likely, that Trump could be sentenced to time behind bars. The felony counts carry a sentence of as long as four years in prison, and Justice Juan Merchan, the judge presiding over the trial, has broad discretion to impose a harsher punishment. 

But there are factors favoring no prison time. Trump is a 77-year-old first-time offender convicted of a low-level, nonviolent crime. The practicalities and precedent of locking up a former president also might give the judge pause. Merchan can make Trump pay a fine or condition his freedom on Trump staying out of criminal trouble. Even if he is sentenced to incarceration, Trump can ask the judge or an appellate court for bail pending appeal to keep him out of custody while he challenges his conviction. If Trump is elected president, he almost certainly would stay out of custody while in office, to prevent interference with his official duties. 

I think the whole exercise was designed to keep him from effectively being able to run, so I either expect as harsh a prison sentence as they can throw out there, or at a minimum some sort of house arrest or something that keeps him off the trail. Hope I’m wrong.

Personally may end up buying DJT here. One of my favorite trading stocks and it’s down pretty big pre market. Seeing Trump’s funding website go down makes me think this is a net positive for his chances. I will also be watching the law and order stocks. Currently own SWBI which initially popped on the verdict. Either people expecting a better chance of a Trump presidency or a civil war, hoping it’s the former. Of course longer term this sets a precedent that is just going to get ugly.

A Guilty Verdict for Trump and Its Consequences for the Country District Attorney Alvin Bragg inaugurates a new and destabilizing era of American politics.-WSJ

The conviction sets a precedent of using legal cases, no matter how sketchy, to try to knock out political opponents, including former Presidents. Mr. Trump has already vowed to return the favor. If Democrats felt like cheering Thursday when the guilty verdict was read, they should think again. Mr. Bragg might have opened a new destabilizing era of American politics, and no one can say how it will end.

Market

Great day for the Argentine stocks yesterday, especially in such a bad tape. PCE this morning, so anything could happen. Some interesting Fed speak yesterday. John Williams is NY Fed President and Vice Chairman of the FOMC….

Looking at this broader context, the behavior of the economy over the past year provides ample evidence that monetary policy is restrictive in a way that helps us achieve our goals

Not quite sure what he’s smoking. His predecessor wrote an Op Ed in Bloomberg and had a very different take…

I think r* is a lot higher than the Fed recognizes - which means the central bank isn't doing enough to fight inflation.

Just all further reinforces my view that these guys have no clue and are making it up as they go along.

Looking at SPY my sense is that we are a bit oversold, but could see it move into the 50 day on a hot PCE.

Same deal on QQQ, except it is more extended from it’s 50 day.

The Dow looks like a textbook double top short sale. However there is some strong looking support at $37,750.

Yesterday’s strength in small caps was interesting as the large cap indices took a beating. IWM had a undercut and rally at it’s 50 day.

Semi’s had their worst day in a while. Interestingly I think we had our best inflow day ever into NVDX as investors bought the dip on NVDA. I did also.

I do think you need to buy dips in NVDA until that stops working.

Rates came down nicely also.

If we didn’t have PCE this morning I would probably be very bullish for today.

Woke Companies

I Did Not Know Cracker Barrel Had Totally Bought the Woke Rainbow-Hot Air

Bit too late to short…

ESG

Exxon Beats the ESG Activists-WSJ

Exxon Mobil shareholders on Wednesday overwhelmingly repudiated a campaign by progressive activists to dislodge CEO Darren Woods and independent director Joseph Hooley from its board. Most investors care about financial returns more than public pension funds apparently do.

As they should. The reason you invest is to make money to fund retirement, put your kids through college, buy a house, etc. If you want to change the world take some of that money and donate to charity.

Dems Who Back Biden’s Crackdown On Fossil Fuels Suddenly Worried About High Gas Prices-Daily Caller

Border

Report: Soros-Backed Philadelphia DA Reducing Charges Against Immigrants to Protect Them from Deportation-Breitbart

The investigation looked at Krasner’s creation of the Immigration Counsel, which provides defense services to immigrants facing criminal prosecution by the Philadelphia District Attorney’s Office — paid for by the city’s taxpayers.

As a result, Krasner’s office “is reducing charges, no matter what crimes an alien defendant has committed, in order to shield foreign nationals from being placed in removal proceedings before the United States Immigration Court,” the investigation alleges

Ukraine

Not a chance that brings us any closer to a direct war with Russia. Antony Blinken Hints Joe Biden Could ‘Adjust’ Ukraine Policy to Support Attacks with U.S. Weapons in Russia-Breitbart

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